数字农科院2.0

Modeling the spread patterns and climatic niche dynamics of the tomato leaf miner Tuta absoluta following its invasion of China

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Xue, Yantao;Huang, Cong;Xian, Xiaoqing;Liu, Wanxue;Wan, Fanghao;Desneux, Nicolas;Zhang, Guifen;Zhang, Yibo

作者机构：

关键词： Biological invasions;Dispersal dynamics;Climatic niche shift;Anthropogenic dispersal

期刊名称： JOURNAL OF PEST SCIENCE

ISSN： 1612-4758

年卷期： 2025 年

页码：

收录情况： SCIE（2025版）

摘要： The tomato leaf miner, Tuta Meyrick (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), has rapidly invaded China, posing significant threats to agricultural systems. This study investigates its dispersal dynamics and climatic niche shifts within Chinese agroecosystems. By integrating six years of nationwide monitoring data with mathematical models, we reconstruct invasion pathways and quantify niche changes. Results reveal bifurcated dispersal corridors originating from Xinjiang and Yunnan, with median dispersal rates of 1,098.79 m/day and notable long-distance events. Climatic niche analysis indicates substantial expansion in China compared to other invaded ranges, particularly in temperature and precipitation variables. These findings highlight the role of human-mediated transport and climatic niche change in driving T. absoluta's rapid spread, underscoring the need for targeted biosecurity measures and dynamic management strategies to mitigate its impact on Solanaceous crops.

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