数字农科院2.0

Evaluation and prediction of the effects of planetary orbital variations to earth’s temperature changes

文献类型: 外文期刊

作者: Mengmeng Cao;Kebiao Mao;Sayed M. Bateni;Jing M. Chen;Essam Heggy;Jong Seong Kug;Xinyi Shen

作者机构:

关键词: Earth’s temperature;Greenhouse gases;Planetary motion

期刊名称: International Journal of Digital Earth

ISSN: 1753-8947

年卷期: 2025 年 18 卷 1 期

页码:

收录情况: SCIE(2025版) ; ; EI(2025版)

摘要: The influence of planetary orbital changes on Earth’s temperature has been poorly quantified and subject to speculation. Here, we delineated the effects of greenhouse gases and planetary orbital changes on Earth’s temperature and forecasted the latter. Our results indicate that Earth’s revolution around the Sun and its rotation explain ∼75.36% and 15.91% of Earth’s temperature variations in one year, while the Moon’s revolution around the Earth and other planet motions account for 8.26% and 0.26%, respectively. Orbital forcings contributed ∼11.5% global warming since 1837 and will continue to warm the Earth by ∼0.13 °C from 2020 to 2027. However, orbital forcings may contribute to ∼0.25 °C cooling of Earth from 2027 to 2050, but this effect remains insufficient to offset the warming caused by CO₂.

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