数字农科院2.0

Pixel scale spatiotemporal patterns of agricultural water and land resources carrying capacity guide precision resource management

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Shengnan Du;Maofang Gao;Qiang Li;Aiqing Guo

作者机构：

关键词： Pixel scale;Projection pursuit model;Resources management;Scenario simulation;Spatiotemporal dynamic evolution law

期刊名称： Computers and Electronics in Agriculture

ISSN： 0168-1699

年卷期： 2025 年 236 卷

页码：

收录情况： SCIE（2025版） ; ; EI（2025版）

摘要： Water and land resource carrying capacity (WLRCC) critically influence food security, economic stability, and social sustainability. This study develops an innovative ESPADIP (endowment, support, pressure, advancement, destruction, impact, protection) framework, incorporating a genetic algorithm-optimized projection pursuit model (GA-PPM), ordered weighted averaging, kernel density estimation, and spatial autocorrelation analysis. We systematically investigated the spatiotemporal evolution, driving mechanisms, and future scenarios of WLRCC in Heilongjiang Province at pixel-scale resolution. The results exhibited a cyclical N-shaped trajectory of WLRCC over time, with pivotal transitions in 2010 (−2.72 % decline) and 2015 (+2.50 % recovery) driven by policy shifts in the Grain-for-Green Program and Water-land Conservation Planning. Spatial analysis revealed high-capacity clusters (WLRCC > 0.75) in agriculturally intensive south-central regions and the Sanjiang Plain, in contrast to low-capacity zones (WLRCC < 0.35) in Daxing’ Bostanling's forested north, where soil erosion diminishes arable land suitability. Scenario projections revealed that prioritizing development over conservation would expand medium–low carrying capacity areas from 25.3 % to 81.1 %, accelerating farmland degradation. By integrating high-resolution ESPADIP diagnostics with dynamic monitoring systems, this study provides a scalable framework for balancing resource utilization and ecological resilience, offering critical decision support for sustainable land–water governance under global-change scenarios.

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