数字农科院2.0

The provincial trend of population aging in China - based on population expansion forecast formula

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Lingyun Duan;Ziyuan Liu;Wen Yu;Wei Chen;Dongyan Jin;Yao Feng;Yu Wang;Jiajia Liu;Han Zhou;Suhua Sun;Ruixi Dai

作者机构：

关键词： countermeasure;forecasting;Population aging;population structure

期刊名称： Journal of Computational Methods in Sciences and Engineering

ISSN： 1472-7978

年卷期： 2022 年 22 卷 1 期

页码：

收录情况： EI（2022版）

摘要： China is one of the countries that have entered the stage of population aging. At present, the phenomenon of aging population has become a widespread concern of the whole society. Scientific and accurate prediction of aging population will help relevant departments to formulate specific countermeasures. This paper uses the Yearbook of China's 1% population sampling survey in 2015 and the data published by the National Bureau of statistics. Based on the basic population prediction formula, the population prediction formula is established by using the index extrapolation method to predict the population aging development trend of provinces and cities in China from 2020 to 2050. The results show that: China's aging degree will continue to increase, the size of the elderly population will continue to increase, 2020-2030 will be a period of rapid growth of the national population aging, after then the aging ratio will decline. The government should formulate security countermeasures for the elderly from various aspects as soon as possible and actively respond to aging the population.

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