数字农科院2.0

Global Potential Geographic Distribution of Anthonomus eugenii Under Climate Change: A Comprehensive Analysis Based on an Ensemble Modeling Approach

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Peilin Wang;Ming Yang;Haoxiang Zhao;Dandan Wei;Guifen Zhang;Hongbo Jiang;Chi Zhang;Xiaoqing Xian;Hongkun Huang;Yibo Zhang

作者机构：

关键词： Biological invasion;biomod2;Invasive alien insects;Species potential distribution

期刊名称： Neotropical entomology

ISSN： 1678-8052

年卷期： 2025 年 54 卷 1 期

页码：

收录情况： SCIE（2025版）

摘要： Climate warming is affecting the ranges and population dynamics of invasive species, including insects, which have become a global problem, causing biodiversity declines and agricultural economic losses. Anthonomus eugenii as an important invasive pest on pepper is now mainly located in the USA and Mexico. However, the global potential geographic distribution (PGD) of A. eugenii with climate change remains unknown, which makes it difficult to monitor and control. In this study, based on the global distribution areas and important environmental variables, we constructed an ensemble model to predict the global PGD of A. eugenii under the current climate and three climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) in the 2030s and 2050s. The mean true skill statistics (TSS) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the EM were 0.825 and 0.988, respectively, indicating that the EM was reliable. The mean temperature of the driest (bio9) and wettest (bio8) quarter and precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio19) were the most important environmental variables affecting the PGD of A. eugenii. Under the current climate, the PGD of A. eugenii was mainly concentrated in southern North America and central South America. The suitable areas of A. eugenii could increase significantly, reaching the maximum under SSP5-8.5 in the 2030s, approximately 1911.7 × 104 km2. Moreover, the distribution centroid would shift to higher latitudes with global warming. It also had the potential invasion risk in Russia, China, the Republic of the Congo, and Romania, which should enhance quarantine control and early warning.

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