数字农科院2.0

Evolution of the Global Forage Products Trade Network and Implications for China's Import Security

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Zhang, Shuxia;Wei, Zihao;Cui, Cha;Wang, Mingli

作者机构：

关键词： trade of forage products;trade network;import security;power-law distribution

期刊名称： AGRICULTURE-BASEL

ISSN：

年卷期： 2025 年 15 卷 19 期

页码：

收录情况： SCIE（2025版）

摘要： Growing global supply chain uncertainties significantly threaten China's forage import security. The evolving characteristics of the global forage trade network directly impact the stability of China's supply. This study constructs a directed, weighted trade network based on global forage products trade data (2000-2024). Using complex network analysis methods, it systematically analyzes the network's topological structure and evolutionary patterns, with a focus on their impact on China's import security. The study addresses the following questions: What evolutionary patterns does the global forage trade network exhibit in terms of its topological structure? How does the evolution of this network impact the import security of forage products in China, specifically regarding supply chain stability and risk resilience? The research findings indicate the following: (1) From 2000 to 2024, the total volume of global forage products trade increased by 48.17%, primarily driven by forage products excluding alfalfa meal and pellets, which accounted for an average of 82.04% of volume annually. Additionally, the number of participating countries grew by 21.95%. (2) The global forage products trade network follows a power-law distribution, characterized by increasing network density, a clustering coefficient that initially declines and then rises, and a shortening of the average path length. (3) The core structure of the global forage products trade network shows an evolutionary trend of diffusion from core nodes in North America, Oceania, and Asia to multiple core nodes, including those in North America, Oceania, Europe, Africa, and Asia. (4) China's forage products trade network displays distinct phase characteristics; however, imports face significant risks from high supply chain dependency and exposure to international price fluctuations. Based on these conclusions, it is recommended that China actively expands trade relations with potential product-exporting countries in Africa, encouraging enterprises to go global. Additionally, China should establish a three-dimensional supply chain security system, comprising maritime, land, and storage components, to enhance risk resistance and import safety.

分类号：

  • 相关文献
作者其他论文 更多>>