数字农科院2.0

Growth stage-dependent extreme temperature stresses on crop yield

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Wenling Ren;Guanpeng Dong;Yuchen Guo;Jiazhe Zhu;Zhonglei Yu;Yadong Yang;Yaqiu Zhu;Hongjuan Zhang;Hang Zhang;Changhong Miao

作者机构：

关键词： Crop yields;Econometric climate models;Extreme temperature events;Growth stages

期刊名称： Journal of Agriculture and Food Research

ISSN： 2666-1543

年卷期： 2025 年 24 卷

页码：

收录情况： ESCI（2025版）

摘要： Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature events, posing growing threats to food security. This study develops a phenology-based framework to assess their impact on wheat and maize yields in Henan Province, China. Leveraging high-resolution phenological and meteorological data, crop growth is segmented into three stages, with stage-specific thermal stress indices constructed for warm days, warm nights, cold days, and cold nights. Fixed-effect climate econometric models are specified to estimate the marginal yield impacts of extreme temperatures over 2000–2020, and future losses are projected under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Wheat is most vulnerable to cold stress during transitional and reproductive stages, while maize is most affected during late development. Wheat suffers greater cumulative losses due to higher exposure and yield base. Over 2000–2020, extreme temperatures caused an average annual grain yield loss of approximately 0.82 million tons (about 3 % of total production). Future warming is projected to shift crop vulnerability from acute cold to chronic heat stress, with significant losses expected even under low-emission pathways. Crop- and stage-specific vulnerabilities to extreme temperatures differ between wheat and maize, highlighting the importance of targeted risk assessment. These findings highlight the need for crop- and stage-specific adaptation strategies to strengthen regional food security.

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