数字农科院2.0

Bivariate analysis reveals the spatial-temporal trends of maize yield losses from diseases across China's agroecological regions over two decades

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Fang, Ouyang;Li, Wei;Cui, Hongying;Tan, Xiaoling;Liu, Shuhui;Sciligo, Amber;Ma, Ping;Xiao, Zhishu;Zhang, Yongsheng

作者机构：

关键词： Maize;Disease;Yield loss;Yield loss rate;Bivariate trend

期刊名称： ECOLOGICAL FRONTIERS

ISSN：

年卷期： 2025 年 46 卷 1 期

页码：

收录情况： ESCI（2025版）

摘要： Maize yield is critically endangered by diseases throughout its growth cycle, posing significant risks to food security. The spatial and temporal dynamics of maize yield loss and the rate of yield loss attributable to these threats on a regional scale have been challenging to ascertain due to scarce continuous observation data. This study compiled county-level data on maize yield and yield loss across China's six primary cropping regions over twenty years from 1999 to 2018. These include the Spring-sown area of Northern China (1-NC), the Summer-sown Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (2-HHP), the Southwest Mountain (3-SM), the Southern Hilly (4-SH), the Northwest Irrigated (5-NI), and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Maize Regions (6-QTP). We identified 15 major diseases affecting these regions. The annual average yield loss due to maize diseases in the regions 1-NC, 2-HHP, 3-SM, 4-SH, 5-NI, and 6-QTP were 0.40, 0.58, 0.12, 0.05, 0.04 and <0.01 million tons, respectively, and the corresponding average yield loss rate (the ratio of yield loss to total yield) in these regions was 0.63, 0.90, 0.65, 0.63, 0.44, and 0.05. The yield loss due to all diseases increased for three regions in 3-SM, 4-SH and 5-NI. The yield loss rate due to diseases significantly increased in region 4-SH and 5NI. Predominantly, maize leaf blight has become the most significant threats. In region 1-NC, maize head smut (D1) and maize leaf blight (D2) were the primary diseases. In region 2-HHP, maize leaf blight (D2), maize rust (D3), maize brown spot (D5), Curvularia leaf spot (D7), and maize virus disease (D14) were the key pathogens. Bivariate trend analysis (joint analysis of yield loss and loss rate trends) indicated that maize head smut (D1) decreased significantly in 1-NC, while in 2-HHP, six diseases showed a significant decrease in both yield loss and loss rate, namely sheath blight (D4), brown spot (D5), root rot (D11), downy mildew (D12) and virus disease (D14). By providing a long-term, national-scale perspective, this study not only supports the development of broad management strategies but also guides the creation of precise, region-specific control protocols to safeguard maize production.

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