数字农科院2.0

Impact of Climate Change on Oriental Migratory Locust Suitability: A Multi-Source Data and MaxEnt-Based Analysis in Hainan Island

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Sun, Zhongxiang;Ye, Huichun;Kong, Weiping;Nie, Chaojia;Bai, Huiqing

作者机构：

关键词： MaxEnt model;environmental variables;suitability;climate change;remote sensing data

期刊名称： REMOTE SENSING

ISSN：

年卷期： 2025 年 17 卷 8 期

页码：

收录情况： SCIE（2025版） ; ; EI（2025版）

摘要： This study employed an integrated approach combining multi-source remote sensing data and the MaxEnt model to systematically assess the ecological niche characteristics of the oriental migratory locust (Locusta migratoria manilensis) in Hainan Island, while projecting the evolution of its suitable habitats under both historical and future climate scenarios (up to 2040). Firstly, we synthesized traditional climate, soil, and topography data with remote sensing data to characterize the suitable areas of the oriental migratory locust based on MaxEnt model (with high accuracy of AUC = 0.935 and TSS = 0.76). Subsequently, six dominant environmental variables-precipitation in April (PRE04), precipitation in September (PRE09), maximum temperature in August (TMAX08), minimum temperature in December (TMIN12), NDVI in February (NDVI02), and NDVI in May (NDVI02)-were identified as key predictors. Their threshold values were determined, with PRE04, PRE09, TMAX08, and TMIN12 ranging from 39 to 44 mm, 196 to 223 mm, 31.1 to 32.2 degrees C, and 17.7 to 18.0 degrees C in high-suitability zones, respectively. Finally, these six predictors were used to assess habitat suitability across Hainan Island for both the 2001-2020 and 2021-2040 periods. Under historical climate conditions, highly suitable areas (505 km2, 1.41% of total land area) were concentrated in the western and northeastern regions, particularly in Dongfang City (46.27%), Ledong Li Autonomous County (32.91%), and Changjiang Li Autonomous County (18.39%). Future projections indicate significant habitat expansion, with total suitable areas increasing by 13.4-42.0% and highly suitable areas reaching 571-831 km2 by 2040. The study highlights the critical Dongfang-Danzhou-Ledong region for targeted locust control, providing scientific support for pest management in tropical island ecosystems under climate change.

分类号：

  • 相关文献

[1]Climate Change Increases the Expansion Risk of Helicoverpa zea in China According to Potential Geographical Distribution Estimation. Haoxiang Zhao,Xiaoqing Xian,Zihua Zhao,Guifen Zhang,Wanxue Liu,Fanghao Wan. 2022

[2]Global Potential Distribution of Carpomya vesuviana Costa Under Climate Change and Potential Economic Impacts on Chinese Jujube Industries. Ning, Jingxuan,Li, Ming,Qi, Yuhan,Zhao, Haoxiang,Xian, Xiaoqing,Guo, Jianyang,Yang, Nianwan,Zhou, Hongxu,Liu, Wanxue. 2025

[3]Study on Hazard Factor Assessment Caused by Snow Disaster in Pastoral Areas of Inner Mongolia Grassland based on Multi-source Remote Sensing Data. Sa, Chula,Wang, Mulan,Bao, Yuhai,Sa, Chula,Liu, Guixiang,Sa, Chula,Wang, Mulan,Bao, Yuhai. 2016

[4]Temperature and Precipitation Suitability Evaluation for the Winter Wheat and Summer Maize Cropping System in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China. Qiu Jian-jun,Li Hu,Nguyen Thanh Tuan,Verdoodt, Ann,Van Ranst, Eric. 2011

[5]The Assessment and Utilization of Straw Resources in China. Wang Ya-jing,Bi Yu-yun,Gao Chun-yu. 2010

[6]The suitability of biotypes Q and B of Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius) (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) at different nymphal instars as hosts for Encarsia formosa Gahan (Hymenoptera: Aphelinidae). Liu, Xin,Zhang, Youjun,Xie, Wen,Wu, Qingjun,Wang, Shaoli. 2016

[7]Estimating daily minimum grass temperature to quantify frost damage to winter wheat during stem elongation in the central area of Huang-Huai plain in China. Wu, Yongfeng,Gong, Zhihong,Ji, Lin,Ma, Juncheng. 2023

[8]Edaphic variables are better indicators of soil microbial functional structure than plant-related ones in subtropical broad-leaved forests. Jingmin Cheng,Zhongjie Han,Jing Cong,Jingjing Yu,Jizhong Zhou,Mengxin Zhao,Yuguang Zhang. 2021

[9]eDNA metabarcoding revealed differential structures of aquatic communities in a dynamic freshwater ecosystem shaped by habitat heterogeneity. Ruili Xie,Gaofeng Zhao,Jianghua Yang,Zhihao Wang,Yiping Xu,Xiaowei Zhang,Zijian Wang. 2021

[10]A new approach to LST modeling and normalization under clear-sky conditions based on a local optimization strategy. Majid Kiavarz,Mohammad Karimi Firozjaei,Seyed Kazem Alavipanah,Quazi K. Hassan,Yoann Malbéteau,Si Bo Duan. 2022

[11]Environmental factors dominate microbial community puppet-like driving the distribution of antibiotic resistance genes in different utilization lands. Wang J.,Li H.,Yang Q.,Lu X.,Zheng X.,Xu Y.. 2024

[12]Estimation of potato yield using a semi-mechanistic model developed by proximal remote sensing and environmental variables. Yiguang Fan,Yang Liu,Jibo Yue,Xiuliang Jin,Riqiang Chen,Mingbo Bian,Yanpeng Ma,Guijun Yang,Haikuan Feng. 2024

[13]Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of Cytospora chrysosperma in Xinjiang, China under climate change scenarios. Quansheng Li,Shanshan Cao,Wei Sun,Zhiyong Zhang. 2024

[14]Ecological Niche Shifts Affect the Potential Invasive Risk of Rapistrum rugosum (L.) All. in China. Xiaoqing Xian,Haoxiang Zhao,Rui Wang,Huijie Qiao,Jianyang Guo,Guifen Zhang,Wanxue Liu,Fanghao Wan. 2022

[15]Modelling potential distribution of snow leopards in pamir, northern pakistan: Implications for human–snow leopard conflicts. Wajid Rashid,Jianbin Shi,Inam Ur Rahim,Muhammad Qasim,Muhammad Naveed Baloch,Eve Bohnett,Fangyuan Yang,Imran Khan,Bilal Ahmad. 2021

[16]Predicting global geographical distribution and latitudinal suitability gradient for light Brown apple moth. Yu Zhang,Ming Yang,Yuhan Qi,Yantao Xue,Nianwan Yang,Gang Ma,Fanghao Wan,Xiaoqing Xian,Wanxue Liu. 2024

[17]Risk Assessment of Spodoptera exempta against Food Security: Estimating the Potential Global Overlapping Areas of Wheat, Maize, and Rice under Climate Change. Ming Li,Zhenan Jin,Yuhan Qi,Haoxiang Zhao,Nianwan Yang,Jianyang Guo,Baoxiong Chen,Xiaoqing Xian,Wanxue Liu. 2024

[18]Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Geographical Distribution of Tea (Camellia sinensis L.) in Kenya with Maximum Entropy Model. Goitom Tesfay,Yuncheng Zhao,Mingyue Zhao,Kuo Li,Tsedale Demelash,Yinlong Xu. 2024

[19]A new approach for spatial optimization of crop planting structure to balance economic and environmental benefits. Hu, Mengmeng,Tang, Huajun,Yu, Qiangyi,Wu, Wenbin. 2025

[20]Comparative analysis between ecological niche and biological models to project climate-driven habitat shifts of the oriental migratory locust in China. Shiqian Feng,Siyan Dong,Xiao Chang,Shaodan Wang,Sultanova Nadira,Niyazbekov Zhan,Fozilbek Nurjonov,Farman Ullah,Shuai Shi,Zehua Zhang,Xiongbing Tu. 2025

作者其他论文 更多>>