数字农科院2.0

Research on regional dual carbon targets and path planning based on mathematical modeling methods: a case study of southeast coastal China

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Shen, Haiyang;Guo, Kai;Liao, Xuan;Gao, Qimin;Wu, Feng;Gu, Fengwei;Hu, Zhichao

作者机构：

关键词： Logistic population growth model;Gray prediction model GM(1,1);Multiple nonlinear regression;Extended STIRPAT model;Scenario design;& quot;Dual carbon & quot;(carbon peak and carbon neutrality)

期刊名称： ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY

ISSN： 1387-585X

年卷期： 2024 年

页码：

收录情况： SCIE（2024版）

摘要： The growth of GDP and the increase in energy consumption have posed a challenge to crack the contradiction between development and emission reduction, and it is necessary to improve the efficiency of energy utilization and the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption. In this paper, to address the contradiction between development and emission reduction, based on the screening of regional population, GDP, energy consumption and carbon emission related indicators and indicator system, we have established Logistic Population Growth Model, Gray Prediction Model, Multiple Non-linear Regression Model and Extended STIRPAT Model, and realized the goal of Dual Carbon path planning. Mathematical models of energy efficiency and non-fossil energy share improvement under natural, baseline, and ambitious scenarios were constructed with the goal of realizing the dual-carbon path planning. The results show that under the dual-carbon target, the regional population is stagnant after 2025. In 2035, with the upgrading of the scenarios, the rate of carbon emissions gradually approaches 0, GDP doubles, and energy consumption decreases by 0.6%. In 2060, with the upgrading of the scenarios, the rate of carbon neutrality gradually rises, GDP is 12 times that of 2020, and energy consumption decreases by 4%, which is in line with the target vision. The study of regional dual-carbon targets and pathway planning based on mathematical modelling provides new ideas and methods for China and the world to crack the contradiction between development and emission reduction, which is of great significance for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality.

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