数字农科院2.0

National-Scale Development And Calibration Of Empirical Models For Predicting Daily Global Solar Radiation In China

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Feng, Y; Gong, DZ; Jiang, SZ; Zhao, L; Cui, NB

作者机构：

关键词： Empirical Models; Sunshine Duration; Air Temperature; Global Solar Radiation; China

期刊名称： ENERGY CONVERSION AND MANAGEMENT

ISSN： 0196-8904

年卷期： 2020 年 203 卷

页码：

收录情况： JCR（2021版） ; EI（2021版）

摘要： Accurate global solar radiation (R-s) information is pivotal to the design and management of solar energy systems. Nevertheless, the expensive devices for R-s measurements make R-s data always unavailable in many regions around the world. The empirical models that predict R-s using other widely available climatic variables are feasible alternatives when R-s measurements are unavailable. However, the parameters of empirical models are site-specific and always need local calibration. In this context, the present study firstly developed a novel empirical model for accurately predicting R-s at the national scale in China, and then compared the new model with nineteen locally calibrated empirical models that have been largely reported in prior studies, including seven sunshine-based, nine temperature-based, and three complex empirical models. Daily R-s and other meteorological data during 1994-2016 from 96 weather stations in China were used to calibrate/develop and assess the models. The results showed that the newly proposed C4 model generally offered the best prediction accuracy among the models, with average MAE of 1.69 MJ m(-2) d(-1), RRMSE of 16.2% and NS of 0.895, which can be recommended as the optimal model for predicting R-s in China. The models reviewed and developed in this study improved the prediction accuracy of R-s which can provide crucial information for the design and implementation of solar photovoltaic and thermal systems.

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