数字农科院2.0

A Study on Recognition and Assessment of Agricultural Weather-related Disaster Risk

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Zhao, Sijian

作者机构：

关键词： Crop;Weather-related disaster risk;Anomaly recognition;Optimal matching;Risk ranking;Risk simulation;Yield trend removing;Deviation analysis

期刊名称： PROCEEDINGS OF THE 7TH ANNUAL MEETING OF RISK ANALYSIS COUNCIL OF CHINA ASSOCIATION FOR DISASTER PREVENTION

ISSN： 1951-6851

年卷期： 2016 年 128 卷

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： In this article, crop's weather-related disaster risk would be recognized and assessed on the basis of time-serial yield data and time-serial weather data, using maize in Xiao County and rice in Lai'an County, that are located in Anhui Province, as a case study. In general, a weather-related disaster is an extreme weather event. More specifically, it is an anomalous weather event. As a consequence, crop yields are expected to appear anomalous too when anomalous weather events appear. According to such a rule, the best relationship between anomalies of crop yield and meteorological variables was figured out through optimal matching. The weather disasters were further ranked according to their contributions to the yield loss risk, and the yield loss risk-related caused by any a weather-related disaster can be assessed by simulation. Such above technologies would play an important role in crop's weather disaster-related risk management, and even support the design of crop's weather-based index insurance.

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