数字农科院2.0

Predicting global geographical distribution and latitudinal suitability gradient for light Brown apple moth

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Yu Zhang;Ming Yang;Yuhan Qi;Yantao Xue;Nianwan Yang;Gang Ma;Fanghao Wan;Xiaoqing Xian;Wanxue Liu

作者机构：

关键词： Environment variables;Epiphyas postvittana;MaxEnt model;Potential geographical distribution

期刊名称： Heliyon

ISSN： 2405-8440

年卷期： 2024 年 10 卷 11 期

页码：

收录情况： SCIE（2024版）

摘要： Epiphyas postvittana, commonly known as the light brown apple moth (LBAM), is native to Australia and has a restricted global distribution. Its polyphagous nature and the recent surge in interceptions have emphasized the need for focused risk assessments to guide effective measures to curb the entry of this pest into new countries. This study aimed to perform a detailed global invasion risk assessment using an optimized MaxEnt model that incorporated 19 bioclimatic variables and elevation. The predictive outcomes underscored the significance of key variables, specifically the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), precipitation of the driest month (bio14), and precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio19), in shaping the potential geographical distribution of LBAM. Regions beyond the existing range, including the southeastern United States, southern Brazil, eastern Argentina, Uruguay, southern Chile, and various Western European countries, were identified as susceptible to invasion and establishment by LBAM. An increase in suitability was observed above 45°N and 40°S under future climate scenario. With respect to climate change, LBAM would expand its potential range in Western Europe and the United States, especially under SSP5-8.5, in the 2050s. An upward trend in the latitudinal suitability gradient for LBAM in mid-high latitude areas implies that amid changing climate conditions, LBAM may find favorable habitats in these regions. For countries and regions with invasion risk, it is imperative to implement corresponding inspections and quarantine measures to thwart the introduction of LBAM, particularly in countries with established trade ties with invaded regions.

分类号：

  • 相关文献

[1]Effects of Environment Variables on Maize Yield and Ear Characters. Yu, Jilin,Qi, Hua,Nie, Linxue,Liu, Ming,Lin, Zhiqiang,Gao, Mingchao,Zhang, Weijian,Zheng, Hongbing. 2013

[2]Ecological Niche Shifts Affect the Potential Invasive Risk of Rapistrum rugosum (L.) All. in China. Xiaoqing Xian,Haoxiang Zhao,Rui Wang,Huijie Qiao,Jianyang Guo,Guifen Zhang,Wanxue Liu,Fanghao Wan. 2022

[3]Modelling potential distribution of snow leopards in pamir, northern pakistan: Implications for human–snow leopard conflicts. Wajid Rashid,Jianbin Shi,Inam Ur Rahim,Muhammad Qasim,Muhammad Naveed Baloch,Eve Bohnett,Fangyuan Yang,Imran Khan,Bilal Ahmad. 2021

[4]Climate Change Increases the Expansion Risk of Helicoverpa zea in China According to Potential Geographical Distribution Estimation. Haoxiang Zhao,Xiaoqing Xian,Zihua Zhao,Guifen Zhang,Wanxue Liu,Fanghao Wan. 2022

[5]Risk Assessment of Spodoptera exempta against Food Security: Estimating the Potential Global Overlapping Areas of Wheat, Maize, and Rice under Climate Change. Ming Li,Zhenan Jin,Yuhan Qi,Haoxiang Zhao,Nianwan Yang,Jianyang Guo,Baoxiong Chen,Xiaoqing Xian,Wanxue Liu. 2024

[6]Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Geographical Distribution of Tea (Camellia sinensis L.) in Kenya with Maximum Entropy Model. Goitom Tesfay,Yuncheng Zhao,Mingyue Zhao,Kuo Li,Tsedale Demelash,Yinlong Xu. 2024

[7]Impact of Climate Change on Oriental Migratory Locust Suitability: A Multi-Source Data and MaxEnt-Based Analysis in Hainan Island. Sun, Zhongxiang,Ye, Huichun,Kong, Weiping,Nie, Chaojia,Bai, Huiqing. 2025

[8]A new approach for spatial optimization of crop planting structure to balance economic and environmental benefits. Hu, Mengmeng,Tang, Huajun,Yu, Qiangyi,Wu, Wenbin. 2025

[9]Comparative analysis between ecological niche and biological models to project climate-driven habitat shifts of the oriental migratory locust in China. Shiqian Feng,Siyan Dong,Xiao Chang,Shaodan Wang,Sultanova Nadira,Niyazbekov Zhan,Fozilbek Nurjonov,Farman Ullah,Shuai Shi,Zehua Zhang,Xiongbing Tu. 2025

[10]Global Potential Distribution of Carpomya vesuviana Costa Under Climate Change and Potential Economic Impacts on Chinese Jujube Industries. Ning, Jingxuan,Li, Ming,Qi, Yuhan,Zhao, Haoxiang,Xian, Xiaoqing,Guo, Jianyang,Yang, Nianwan,Zhou, Hongxu,Liu, Wanxue. 2025

[11]THE POTENTIAL GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF BACTROCERA DORSALIS (DIPTERA: TEPHRIDIDAE) IN CHINA BASED ON EMERGENCE RATE MODEL AND ARCGIS. Li, Zhihong,Wu, Jiajiao,Rajotte, Edwin G.,Rajotte, Edwin G.,Wan, Fanghao,Wang, Zhiling. 2009

[12]Potential geographical distribution of Rhagoletis pomonella (Diptera: Tephritidae) in China. Li, Zhi-Hong,Lu, Xiao-Yu,Geng, Jian,Rajotte, Edwin G.,Wan, Fang-Hao,Wang, Zhi-Ling. 2011

[13]The Current and Future Potential Geographical Distribution of the Solanum Fruit Fly, Bactrocera latifrons (Diptera: Tephritidae) in China. Li, Zhihong,Ni, Wenlong,Qu, Weiwei,Wu, Jiajiao,Hu, Xuenan,Wan, Fanghao. 2012

[14]Estimation of climate-induced increased risk of Centaurea solstitialis L. invasion in China: An integrated study based on biomod2. Tao Jia,Yuhan Qi,Haoxiang Zhao,Xiaoqing Xian,Jianyu Li,Hongkun Huang,Wentao Yu,Wan Xue Liu. 2023

[15]Constructing an Ensemble Model and Niche Comparison for the Management Planning of Eucalyptus Longhorned Borer Phoracantha semipunctata under Climate Change. Zhao H.,Xian X.,Liang T.,Wan F.,Shi J.,Liu W.. 2023

[16]Predicting the potential geographical distribution of Ageratina adenophora in China using equilibrium occurrence data and ensemble model. Xian X.,Zhao H.,Wang R.,Zhang H.,Chen B.,Huang H.,Liu W.,Wan F.. 2022

[17]Population genetics and ecological niche modelling provide insights into management strategies of the herbivorous pest Phytomyza horticola (Diptera: Agromyzidae). Liang, Yongxuan,Du, Sujie,Jin, Zhenan,Xu, Shiyun,Wan, Weijie,Zhong, Yujun,Li, Qiao,Zhou, Qiong,Guo, Jianyang,Liu, Wanxue. 2023

[18]Impacts of climate change on climatically suitable regions of two invasive Erigeron weeds in China. Yumeng Huang,Guoliang Zhang,Weidong Fu,Yue Zhang,Zihua Zhao,Zhihong Li,Yujia Qin. 2023

[19]Projecting the Global Potential Geographical Distribution of Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae) under Current and Future Climates. Jiawei Rao,Yu Zhang,Haoxiang Zhao,Jianyang Guo,Fanghao Wan,Xiaoqing Xian,Nianwan Yang,Wanxue Liu. 2024

[20]Global Potential Geographical Distribution of the Southern Armyworm (Spodoptera eridania) under Climate Change. Zhang, Yu,Zhao, Haoxiang,Qi, Yuhan,Li, Ming,Yang, Nianwan,Guo, Jianyang,Xian, Xiaoqing,Liu, Wanxue. 2023

作者其他论文 更多>>