数字农科院2.0

Impacts of climate change-induced heat stress on pig productivity in China

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Niu, Kunyu;Zhong, Jianing;Hu, Xiangdong

作者机构：

关键词： Pig productivity;Stochastic frontier production function model;Heat stress;Climate change;Economic perspective

期刊名称： SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT

ISSN： 0048-9697

年卷期： 2024 年 908 卷

页码：

收录情况： SCIE（2024版） ; ; EI（2024版）

摘要： The economic impacts of climate-induced heat stress on pig farming have not been sufficiently investigated, despite the significant threat it poses to the industry. In this study, we coupled consecutive years of county-scale meteorological data with operational-level economic data to estimate the impact of climate-induced heat stress on the productivity of the Chinese pig industry using a stochastic frontier production function model. Based on model results, we projected the impact of heat stress on pig production in 2030 and 2050 with and without technological advances. Results showed that heat stress has a significant negative impact on pig production, with southern regions being more affected. However, considering technological advances, losses will decrease by 21 % and 52 %, respectively, compared with the scenario without technological advances. Simultaneously, we calculated the costs of climate change mitigation and adaptation and found that increasing production inputs to reduce production losses from heat stress costs one-fifth of forgoing production losses. Therefore, we recommend a positive climate change response strategy.

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