数字农科院2.0

Assessment Framework and Models Review of Spatial-and-temporal Risk of Natural Disaster

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Zhao, Sijian

作者机构：

关键词： Natural disaster;Risk;Spatial-and-temporal variance;Scenario;Model

期刊名称： INNOVATIVE THEORIES AND METHODS FOR RISK ANALYSIS AND CRISIS RESPONSE

ISSN： 1951-6851

年卷期： 2012 年 21 卷

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： Same to everything in nature, risk is obviously not static, and it would vary with time and space. As a type of natural and social phenomena, natural disaster's risk could present significant spatial-and-temporal variance. However, the current studies on natural disaster risk are all limited to the analysis of static risk, and they cannot longer meet the needs of the risk decision-making and emergency management work. Therefore, the spatial-and-temporal variance expression of natural disaster risk is proposed based on the scenario-driven analysis theory of risk. Furthermore, a technology framework is built to assess spatial-and-temporal risk of natural disaster, in which there exit four key models, i.e. spatial-and-temporal probability model of disaster induced factors, spatial-and-temporal development model of geographical factors, simulation model of hazard process and spatial-and-temporal development model of society and economy. The advances of these models are reviewed respectively. In summary, the general purpose of this paper is to provide a theory basis to study spatial-and-temporal risk of natural disaster.

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