数字农科院2.0

Climate-connectivity-geography interactions govern the hydrologic vulnerability of geographically isolated wetlands

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Zhu, Jie;Huang, Yuming;Zheng, Xiangqun;Liu, Yifei;Zhang, Xiao;Geng, Bing;Zhu, Changxiong;Liu, Liyuan;Wang, Jiarui;Lu, Dawei;Jiang, Guibin

作者机构：

关键词： Geographically isolated wetlands;Climate change;Vulnerability regimes;High-resolution modeling

期刊名称： ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH

ISSN： 0013-9351

年卷期： 2025 年 292 卷

页码：

收录情况： SCIE（2025版） ; ; EI（2025版）

摘要： Geographically isolated wetlands (GIWs) are hydrologic keystones that sustain landscape water balance and ecosystem resilience, yet their persistence under intensifying climate variability remains poorly constrained. Here, we develop and test a Climate-Connectivity-Geography (C-K-G) diagnostic framework. For the first time, this framework conceptualizes and quantifies the interactive effects of climate forcing, groundwater connectivity, and geographic heterogeneity on GIW hydrologic vulnerability. We address this using a factorial ensemble of 936 high-resolution simulations (30 m grid, 30 min timestep; 1950-2099). These simulations couple six biascorrected CMIP5 climate models, two groundwater-connectivity states, and geographic variation across three regions, 13 sites, and two landforms. Across scenarios, climate sets the magnitude of hydrologic vulnerability: median water levels under DryWarm decline to -157 cm-over 100 cm lower than WetCool. Connectivity increases median levels by 20-46 cm and dampens annual excursions, with the strongest buffering in structurally constrained settings. Geography organizes the spatial pattern and intensity of these responses. Synthesizing system behaviour, we delineate three reproducible regimes-connectivity-dependent, fluctuation-driven (annual ranges up to 175 cm), and self-stabilizing (rarely < -120 cm)-each representing a distinct hydrologic response mode to climatic forcing. The C-K-G framework provides a process-based, transferable foundation for diagnosing wetland persistence, quantifying resilience thresholds, and guiding hydrologically informed management under non-stationary climate.

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