数字农科院2.0

Agricultural machinery could contribute 20% of total carbon and air pollutant emissions by 2050 and compromise carbon neutrality targets in China

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Zhuang, Minghao;Wang, Xu;Yang, Yi;Wu, Yifei;Wang, Ligang;Lu, Xi

作者机构：

关键词： Agricultural machinery;;carbon and air pollutant emissions;;carbon neutrality targets;;China

期刊名称： NATURE FOOD

ISSN：

年卷期： 2025 年

页码：

收录情况： SCIE（2025版）

摘要： Agricultural mechanization has benefitted food security in China, but carbon dioxide (CO2) and air pollutant emissions from fuel combustion are often overlooked. Here we show that emissions of CO2 and air pollutants from agricultural machinery increased nearly sevenfold and four- to sevenfold, respectively, during 1985-2020, driven largely by rapid advancement in the mechanization level. If unabated, annual emissions of CO2, PM2.5 and NOx from agricultural machinery in 2050 could reach 213.6 Mt, 55.4 Gg and 902.8 Gg, contributing similar to 21%, similar to 4% and similar to 17% of China's total emissions under a dual-carbon goal scenario, respectively. However, adoption of renewable energy sources could mitigate 65-70% of these emissions. Our study highlights that China's agricultural machinery could become a large source of emissions that-without mitigation-may hinder China's carbon neutrality targets and degrade air quality.

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