数字农科院2.0

Long-term scenarios for climate adaptation of cotton crops in China, considering multidimensional biophysical and socio-economic scenario analysis

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Guo, Simeng;Wu, Fengqi;Wang, Yuhan;Wang, Jian;Zhang, Zhenggui;Pan, Zhanlei;Chong, Chenxi;Li, Pengcheng;Huang, Weibin;Sun, Guilan;Li, Xin;Wang, Shuchen;Li, Junhong;Zhang, Yaopeng;Zhao, Wenqi;Zhai, Menghua;Gao, Lei;Liu, Liantao;Wang, Zhanbiao

作者机构：

关键词： Climate change adaptation;Sustainable production system;Crop layout;Multi-department optimization;Arable land use change;Cotton

期刊名称： JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION

ISSN： 0959-6526

年卷期： 2026 年 540 卷

页码：

收录情况： SCIE（2025版） ; ; EI（2025版）

摘要： Climate change is fundamentally reshaping agricultural land suitability, with profound implications for water use, carbon emissions, and crop productivity. Understanding the long-term drivers of climate on the planting suitability of arable land and exploring multi-sectoral coordinated response solutions for the climate-agriculture-society system are essential for mitigating and adapting to climate change. This study develops a multidimensional framework to assess climate adaptation scenarios for cotton-one of the world's most important cash crops-in China from 1960 to 2100. Integrating species distribution modeling with socio-economic scenario analysis, we identify three key findings: (1) Historical cotton's highly suitable areas has shifted northward (+166 km) and to higher elevations (+47 m average) due to changing climate-soil-topography interactions; (2) While climatic suitability determines land potential, actual planting decisions are still mainly driven by economic returns, coordinating to local production management level; (3) Sustainable adaptation requires balancing biophysical suitability with production efficiency and circular economy practices. This study emphasizes not only the climate impact on agricultural land use changes but also reveals the synergistic mechanisms between climatic suitability, socio-economic, and production factors, that inform targeted land-use planning. Based on these findings, we recommend that future agricultural policies prioritize climate-smart land-use zoning, support adaptive infrastructure development in emerging suitable regions, and provide economic incentives to guide planting structure optimization under climate change scenarios. These insights play a crucial role in optimizing climate-smart farming structures, promoting agricultural adaptation and mitigation of climate change, and realize the sustainable and cleaner production under climate change.

分类号：

  • 相关文献

[1]Cloning and Expression of the Chloroplast Copper/Zinc-Superoxide Dismutase Gene in Upland Cotton （Gossypium hirsutum L.）. Yu Shuxun,Fan Shuli,Song Meizhen. 2007

[2]2015年全国棉花种植品种监测报告——播种品种(系)344个;数量减少83个;减幅19.4%. 毛树春,冯璐,芦建华. 2016

[3]2015年中国与美国棉花种植品种比较. 冯璐,毛树春. 2016

[4]兰州百合病毒病原的DAS-ELISA检测. 王发林,古勤生,刘芬,彭斌,刘丽锋. 2003

[5]Evaluating the impact of crop layout changes on n and p nutrient balance: a case study in the west liaohe river basin, china. Zijuan Zhao,Beilei Fan. 2021

[6]Herders' perception of climate change does not always fit with actual climate change. Li, Xiliang,Wang, Zhen,Hou, Xiangyang,Liu, Zhiying,Sarula,Yin, Yanting,Ding, Yong,Hu, Jing.

[7]Addressing current climate issues in Pakistan: An opportunity for a sustainable future. Muhammad Adnan,Baohua Xiao,Shaheen Bibi,Peiwen Xiao,Peng Zhao,Haiyan Wang. 2024

[8]Physical Management Strategies for Enhancing Soil Resilience to Climate Change: Insights From Africa. Abdulkareem Raheem,Oluwaseyi Oyewale Bankole,Frederick Danso,Moshood Olawale Musa,Temilade Anifata Adegbite,Victor Bamidele Simpson. 2025

[9]The adaptation level and mechanism of grain production to climate change in China. Liu Dong,Feng Xiaolong,Si Wei. 2025

[10]Global agricultural adaptation case database and trend analysis based on large language models. Zhong, Jing-Wen,Zhang, Xue-Yan,Ma, Xin. 2025

[11]Climate change policy landscape in Uganda: assessing the extent of implementation of adaptation policies at the sub-national level. Kisambira, Zepher N.,Songcai, You,Bomuhangi, Allan. 2025

[12]Agronomic performance and yield stability of field pea (Pisum sativum L.) genotypes in multi-environment trials. Chaoqin Hu,Jie Cun,Alaa A. Soliman,Feng Yang,Zeinab E. Ghareeb,Xingxing Yuan,Tao Yang,Xuejun Wang,Jijun Zhang,Chao Xiang,Long Zhao,Changyan Liu,Gaoling Luo,Bin Zhou,Xu Zhu,Yongsheng Tang,Ruigang Wang,Haitian Yu,Xin Yang,Yubao Wang,Zhengming Dai,Aiqing Zheng,Qiong Li,Xiuzhi Xia,Xin Chen,Yuhua He. 2025

[13]Histological and Ultrastructural Observation Reveals Significant Cellular Differences between Agrobacterium Transformed Embryogenic and Non-embryogenic Calli of Cotton. Shang, Hai-Hong,Liu, Chuan-Liang,Zhang, Chao-Jun,Li, Feng-Lian,Hong, Wei-Dong,Li, Fu-Guang.

[14]Genome-Scale Analysis Of The Wri-Like F.amily In Gossypium And F unctional Characterization Of Ghwri1A Controlling Triacylglycerol Content. Wang, Nuohan,Ma, Jianjiang,Liu, Guoyuan,Yu, Jiwen,Geng, Yanhui,Wu, Man,Li, Dan,Zhang, Jinfa,Zang, Xinshan,Pei, Wenfeng,Cui, Yupeng,Li, Xingli. 2018

[15]Genome-Wide Identification And Expression Analysis O.f The Metacaspase Gene F amily In Gossypium Species. Liu, Aiying,Zhang, Zhen,Jiang, Xiao,Zhang, Zhibin,Fan, Senmiao,Deng, Xiaoying,Ge, Qun,Lei, Kang,Gong, Juwu,Li, Junwen,Shi, Yuzhen,Yuan, Youlu,Huang, Jinyong,Gong, Wankui,Zou, Xianyan,Jia, Tingting,Zhang, Lipeng,Yuan, Youlu,Shang, Haihong,Fan, Liqiang,Zhang, Shuya,Shang, Haihong. 2019

[16]Gbs Mapping And Analysis Of G.enes Conserved Between Gossypium T omentosum And Gossypium Hirsutum Cotton Cultivars That Respond To Drought Stress At The Seedling Stage Of The Bc2F2 Generation. Hou, Yuqing,Magwanga, Richard Odongo,Lu, Pu,Kirungu, Joy Nyangasi,Magwanga, Richard Odongo,Xu, Yanchao,Hu, Yangguang,Zhou, Zhongli,Diouf, Latyr,Liu, Fang,Dong, Qi,Wang, Xingxing,Cai, Xiaoyan,Wang, Kunbo. 2018

[17]Molecular Characterisation And Functional Analysis O.f A Cytochrome P450 G ene In Cotton. Sun, Quan,Wang, Weina,Shi, Yuzhen,Sun, Quan,Wang, Weina,Zhang, Xiao,Zhou, Kexue,Yuan, Youlu,Zhang, Xiangrui,Mo, Jianchuan,Cheng, Jieru,Chu, Zongyan,Cai, Chaowei,Cai, Yingfan,Du, Xiongming,Long, Lu,Miao, Chen,Gao, Wei,Liu, Yujia. 2017

[18]Molecular Evolution And Stress And P.hytohormone Responsiveness Of Sut G enes In Gossypium Hirsutum. Liu, Yangai,Ma, Xiongfeng,Pei, Xiaoyu,Wang, Zhenyu,Song, Chengxiang,Sun, Kuan,Yang, Daigang,Zhou, Xiaojian,Zhang, Fei,Ren, Zhongying,He, Kunlun,Li, Wei. 2018

[19]Topical Shading Substantially Inhibits Vegetative B.ranching By Altering Leaf P hotosynthesis And Hormone Contents Of Cotton Plants. Li, Cundong,Dong, Hezhong,Kong, Xiangqiang,Kong, Xiangqiang,Dai, Jianlong,Dong, Hezhong,Dong, Hezhong,Li, Ting,Zhang, Yanjun,Li, Ting. 2019

[20]Rna-Sequencing, Physiological And Rnai Analyses P.rovide Insights Into The R esponse Mechanism Of The Abc-Mediated Resistance To Verticillium Dahliae Infection In Cotton. Peng, Renhai,Magwanga, Richard Odongo,Lu, Pu,Wang, Kunbo,Wang, Xingfen,Zhou, Zhongli,Xu, Yanchao,Wang, Xingxing,Cai, Xiaoyan,Dong, Qi,Dong, Qi,Hou, Yuqing,Magwanga, Richard Odongo,Liu, Fang,Kirungu, Joy Nyangasi,Ma, Zhiying. 2019

作者其他论文 更多>>